The MDGs were reflected in Sudan’s
Interim Constitution as well as the
Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)
as a prerequisite to achieve stability
in Sudan. The National Long-term Strategic
Plan which spanned the 25 year period
(2007-2031) has also made strong references
and commitments to the MDGs. The new
Five Year Development Plan (2012-2016)
being finalized and its predecessor
(2007-2011) have also made strong
reference to the achievements of the
MDGs in Sudan. Achieving MDGs in Sudan
is set as a challenge in the Socio-cultural
section of the new Five Year Development
Plan (Sudan MDGs Report, 2011).
UNDP's support in the area of poverty
reduction focuses on improving the
national capacity to plan and monitor
a comprehensive approach to the reduction
of human and income poverty, in line
with the Millennium Development Goals.
The incidence of poverty in Northern
Sudan stood at 46.5%. This means that
almost one out of two Northern Sudanese
does not have the necessary means
to purchase the value of a minimum
food and non-food bundle. Poverty
levels vary greatly by state. The
incidence of poverty ranges from a
quarter of the population in the capital
to more than two thirds of the population
in Northern Darfur.
The post CPA period has become extremely
challenging for the new Sudan. The
decline in oil revenue resulting from
the secession of South Sudan on July
9, 2011 has resulted in to macroeconomic
shocks on both the domestic (fiscal)
and external (balance of payment)
front. During the pre-secession CPA
period, oil accounted for about 50%
domestic revenue and 85% of export
earnings. Sudan is believed to have
lost 75% of its oil reserves compared
to the period before secession. The
loss in oil revenue has resulted in
to a major adjustment to Sudan’s
fiscal situation as reflected in the
amended budget announced for the remaining
period of 2011 in July 2011. According
a recent World Bank Study, the amended
budget calls for a 12 percent lower
public revenue and 7 percent lower
federal spending. The bulk of the
decline in federal spending comes
from cuts in development spending
and federal transfers to states, by
26 and 20 percent respectively. These
cuts have raised concerns on the adverse
impact on poverty reduction and meeting
the MDGs as well as the economic diversification
agenda. The post CPA negotiation pertaining
to oil has not yet been settled. The
fiscal deficit as percent of GDP is
projected to double in 2012 with far
reaching implication on macroeconomic
stability(inflation) and hence poverty
(Sudan MDGs Report, 2011).
On the external front, the oil loss
has resulted in to a decline in foreign
reserves which have resulted in the
depreciation of the Sudanese Pound
against the US Dollar. The premium
on the parallel market has been widening.
This has aggravated the inflationary
pressure driven by food inflation
as most of the food stuff is being
imported. General inflation driven
by food inflation averaged nearly
19 percent by the end of 2011 from
13 percent in 2010. The government
is making efforts to compensate for
the oil loss through expanding mineral
exports such as gold. But as noted
in the recent Draft IPRSP Document,
what is more important is to pursue
the diversification agenda with focus
on the agriculture sector through
expanding private sector investment
(both foreign and domestic). The US
sanctions (renewed in November 2011)
is likely exacerbate the deteriorating
economic situation in Sudan (Sudan
MDGs Report, 2011).
As articulated in the recently issued
Draft Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy
Paper(July, 2011), promotion of economic
growth and employment creation is
the first important policy and strategy
pillar of the Government of Sudan.
The focus of Sudan new growth strategy
is the non-oil sectors that can impact
the incomes of the poor and create
employment opportunities for all categories
of the labor force. In the non-oil
sectors, the aim is to attract domestic
and foreign direct investment and
to promote productivity growth for
Sudanese firms to be globally competitive
and hence sustain pro-poor and broad
based growth. For stability of national
income, government revenues and expenditures,
the growth strategy needs to aim to
create opportunities for growth in
diverse fields of economic activity,
to avoid the dependence on a few sectors.
In the current context in Sudan, the
growth strategy needs to focus on
two areas:
(i) targeted support
for the agricultural sector, including
livestock, forestry and fisheries,
to promote growth and productivity
change; and
(ii) broad support
for private sector development, with
policies, institutions, incentives
and infrastructural services to promote
investments, innovation, productivity
growth and employment creation in
all sectors of the economy. Productive
activities will be the domain of the
private sector.
The key roles for the government in
the strategy includes
(i) the maintenance
of macroeconomic stability that reduces
macroeconomic risks, improves the
confidence of the business sector
in the management of the economy,
helps to maintain the competitiveness
of Sudanese firms;
(ii) adopt policy
and institutional framework that supports
the strategic objectives of growth
and poverty reduction;
(iii) pursue human
development efforts that builds a
skilled labor force consistent with
the demands of the labor markets to
foster innovation and productivity;
and
(iv) economic services
including infrastructure, and for
agriculture, knowledge related services
(research, extension and capacity
building).
The Second policy and strategy pillar
articulated in the Draft IPRSP is
strengthening human resources. Creating
employment also requires that the
education and knowledge system produces
the skills that employers need to
be innovative and to raise productivity.
Access to quality education and healthcare
is crucial for enabling more and more
citizens to take advantage of the
opportunities presented by a growing
economy and add value to the economy
and thus escape the trap of poverty
(Sudan MDGs Report, 2011) .
The third policy and strategy pillar
articulated in the IPRSP is building
a strong, inclusive, transparent and
effective state and the institutional
capacity to govern and deliver public
services to the population. Important
elements of good governance include
effective public financial management
(PFM) and decentralization, peace
and security, fighting corruption,
promoting human rights, and improving
justice and law enforcement (Sudan
MDGs Report, 2011).
The fourth dimension of the policy
strategy articulated in the IPRSP
is reintegration of internally displaced
persons (IDPs). Reintegration involves
a systematic approach to end the temporary,
uncertain and dependent status of
these displaced populations by providing
permanent access to shelter and sustainable
livelihoods in new or existing communities,
to economic and social opportunities
such as land, credit, market places,
schools and health facilities, and
participation in civic activities
and decision-making in the communities
(Sudan MDGs Report, 2011).
Sudan's progress towards achieving
the globally agreed socio-economic
development goals should not be oblivious
to the detrimental effects of conflicts
towards realizing these objectives.
The detrimental impact of armed conflict
on development and the associated
humanitarian needs manifested themselves
in a number of ways including the
following:
1. Diversion of significant financial
and human resources to support government
authority to maintain law & order
and the protection of citizens and
private property;
2. Providing humanitarian assistance,
security and protection to the victims
of armed conflicts, such as internally
displaced persons (IDPs) and the injured
individuals or families, groups or
regions. Such assistance may extend
for a long time and may involve millions
of people;
3. Reduction or diversion of public
spending on essential or basic services
to people in the areas affected by
conflict. The services that could
be hampered include education, health,
clean drinking water, electricity
supply, infrastructure, deteriorating
environment and employment opportunities;
4. Difficulty in implementing development
projects in the areas affected by
armed conflict owing to lack of security,
disintegration or severe weakening
of the social and economic fabric
of such communities as a result of
massive exodus of IDPs.
On the whole, the MDGs assessments
in Sudan indicate to positive and
encouraging progress on Goal 2 (access
to education particularly at primary
level), Goal 3 (Gender Equality and
Empowerment of Women) and Goal 6 (HIV/AIDS).
Judged by current trends, Goal 1,
Goal 4, Goal 5 and Goal 7 of the MDGs
may not be achieved unless current
efforts are scaled up on all fronts
(resources both human and financial)
to reverse current trends.
